A World Cup Finals
preview: Argentina vs. Germany
by rick olivares
When looking at the World Cup Finals, there are three
things that immediately come to mind: one, this will be the third
Argentina-Germany finals in World Cup history; two, is it really Lionel Messi
versus Germany; and three, no European team has won on South American soil.
There are some nuggets of information that should
provide some trivia and a look at how this finals should play out.
Before we tackle and dissect all three points, I wonder
how people are making Argentina to be the underdogs in this finals match up. Is
it because Germany thrashed Brazil? How can that be when Argentina is 6-0-0 in
this tournament while Germany is 5-1-0?
Let that stew for a while.
Now let’s break it down.
This will be the third Argentina-Germany finals (in addition to two
quarterfinals meetings).
It’s 1-1 for both sides and this is like the rubber
match in the championship round. However, for
the core of these two squads, Germany is 2-0 in quarterfinals play (2006
and 2010).
Here’s a little background information.
In 1986, two members of Germany’s World Cup squad played
outside the Bundesliga. That was defender Hans Peter Breigel who suited up for
Verona in and their team captain Karl Heinz Rummenigge who played for Inter
Milan.
In contrast, seven of Argentina’s players plied their
trade abroad: Diego Maradona with Napoli, Daniel Passarella who played for
Fiorentina, Jorge Burruchaga who wore the Nantes colors, Jorge Valdano who was
a Real Madrid talisman, Pedro Pasculi who was a forward for Lecce in Italy,
midfielder Mario Trobbiani who was with Spanish side Elche, and goalkeeper
Hector Zelada who played in Mexico for America.
Argentina defeated West Germany, 3-2 to win their
second World Cup.
Four years
later in 1990, the two countries met
once more in the finals this time with the Germans coming out on top, 1-nil to
win their third World Cup.
Fourteen Argentineans were now playing out of their
country.
The West German team they went up against featured
five players who all played in Italy while 17 played in the Bundesliga.
Andreas Brehme scored a penalty kick in the 85th
minute for the matches only goal.
In 2014, only three of the 22-man Argentina team plays in
the domestic league while everyone else plays abroad.
The Germans on the other hand have seven playing
outside their home soil.
What does
this all mean?
My theory is that while playing outside their country
has greatly improved individual Argentinean players it is their greatness and
experience is what helps them in international play but somewhat hurts when up
against top sides due to chemistry issues.
In 2006, La Albiceleste defeated an Ivory Coast
squad, 2-1, that had all their players playing outside their home soil. They
also destroyed a Serbian squad that had only six home based players, 6-nil.
Against a Dutch side that had 14 home-based players,
they played to a scoreless draw.
In 2006, in the Round of 16, they dispatched a
Mexican side that didn’t have top quality. But when they ran into the Germans
in the quarterfinals in 2006 and 2010, they were ousted.
It’s the same trend in 2010, Argentina defeated a
Nigerian team, 1-0, that had all their players playing outside their country.
While one can argue that the Korea and Greek teams they blasted, 4-1 and 2-0
respectively, featured mostly players who stayed home, I’d say that it’s the
lack of quality players on those two teams squad. Quick, outside Park Ji-Sung
who else on either team made the wires?
It’s the same for their 2014 group opponents –
Bosnia, Iran, and Nigeria.
Now they are playing a more organized and largely
home grown side. If you also look at Italy (notwithstanding their not advancing
out of the group stages in the last two World Cups), they have a vastly improved
home grown program that has a World Cup trophy from 2006 to show for.
To sum it up, when Argentina won their first World
Cup in 1978 they took the world by storm. There was a new power to challenge
the hegemony of Brazil, Uruguay, Germany, England, and the Netherlands. As the
years went by, clubs from Europe began to sign Argentine players who also
acquitted themselves well. Maradona, Valdano, Burruchaga and later on Gabriel
Batistuta were snapped up. While it raised the profile of Argentinean footballers,
it hurt the national side as chemistry was lacking. They played differently – a
more European style of game, as opposed to the creative and frenetic pace the
South Americans employed.
Then their standing internationally began to slide.
Since the 1990 World Cup appearance, they booked
three quarterfinals berths, one round of 16 appearance and one forgettable
stint where they never got out of the group stage.
If the fall of 2000 was the nadir for German
football, the 2002 World Cup was Argentina’s version. Since then they’ve
advanced to the quarterfinals twice and now the finals.
How does this relate to the upcoming World Cup
finals?
Argentina has played a more pragmatic game as
evidence by their approach to the Dutch. When the saw the Netherlands come out
more conservatively, then they attacked first on the counter then dictating
some pace. Alejandro Sabella’s men know they are up against a team where
there’s utmost familiarity and organization.
Is it really Lionel Messi versus Germany?
Not at all. Some squads are just marketed that way –
one talismanic player to lead them to the Promised Land. While Messi is
arguably the best player in the world that doesn’t mean his team is composed of
chopped liver.
But Argentina seems to be led by some football demigod
at one time or another. In the 80s it was Maradona. In the 90s, Batistuta. In
the first and second decade of the new millennium, it has been Messi.
Is that a factor?
Let’s back track.
In 1986, Diego Maradona scored five goals while Jorge Valdano
added four and Jorge Burruchaga fired in two.
West Germany’s Rudi Voller led his side with three
goals.
Argentina scored 13 goals and conceded five.
Germany scored eight and let seven find the back of
the net.
In 1990, with Maradona out because of a failed drug test,
Claudio Caniggia scored two while Jorge Burruchaga, Pedro Monzon, and Pedro
Troglio added one score each.
On the other hand, Lothar Matthaus led Germany with
four goals while Andreas Brehme, Jurgen Klinsmann, and Rudi Voller each added three.
Germany this time led the scoring parade with 15
while conceding five.
Argentina was scored five and conceded four!
In 2014, Lionel Messi has four goals to his name so
far but has had little help so far. Angel di Maria, Gonzalo Higuain and Marcos
Rojo had each scored one goal.
But with James Rodriguez out of the tourney, his six
goals could be tied or better by Germany’s Thomas Muller who has five goals tallied.
Andre Schurrle has added three while Mats Hummels, Miroslav Klose and Toni
Kroos have scored a brace each.
Germany has scored 17 while allowing four goals for a
+13.
Argentina has scored eight and allowed three for a
+5.
What the previous two finals matches between the two
countries has shown is the team that has scored more goals (remember Spain
didn’t have the best tally in 2010) went on to win it all.
History-wise, it points to Germany but of course this
will go all out of the window and have to be settled on the pitch.
And lastly, no European team has won on South American soil.
We have seen the World Cup scoring record fall (by a
German) and the home team’s win streak dating back to 1975 smashed (by a German
side). What is one more “record” to fall as well?
Germany has been ready for this. They are a team on a
mission and their failures have served as motivation. People say they haven’t
been too impressed with them (which leaves me to wonder why on earth they have
been installed as top dogs if that is the case) because they haven’t played
well.
Perhaps, maybe we should look at it this way…. They
are peaking at the right time.
Argentina will it a little more cagey and be physical
at times to unhinge the Germans. In fact, they play like Italy – more defensive.
They will want press the Germans like they did to the Dutch. Except the Dutch
have far fewer impact players in this World Cup. Arjen Robben is and was their
best. Wesley Sneijder only had one moment. Nigel de Jong battled fitness. And
in the end, there was some resentment when Louis Van Gaal opted for Tim Krul as
opposed to Japser Cilissen who didn’t get the job done in the semifinals.
However, it might be more difficult to press the
Germans as they have so many players capable of playing that ball forward –
Mario Gotze, Mesut Ozil, Bastian Schweinsteiger, and Toni Kroos.
Argentina in my opinion, is this World Cup’s sucker
punch team. They hurt you either in the first 10 minutes or in the last 10.
Whoever scores first will own a massive advantage
that could prove to be the decider. If it goes to penalties, it will still be
Germany.
Having said all of this, it will be close.
Germany by a goal or two but it will be close.
Argentina....
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