Someone asked me how my blog and newspaper column came to be titled "Bleachers Brew". It's like this, it's an amalgam of sorts of two things: The bleachers area in the stadium/arena where I used to sit when I would watch baseball, football, and basketball games and Miles Davis' great jazz album Bitches Brew. That's how it got culled together. I originally planned on calling it "The View from the Big Chair" that is a nod to Tears For Fear's second album, Songs from the Big Chair. So there.

Thursday, February 18, 2016

Breaking down the Meralco Bolts' 24-second shot clock vs Rain or Shine

Breaking down the Meralco Bolts’ shot clock vs RoS
by rick olivares

The resurgent Meralco Bolts showed resiliency in their 98-95 win over a tough Rain or Shine team last night. The Bolts coughed up a 26-point lead in the second quarter but never surrendered the lead en route to their third win in as many matches.

You have to give credit to the RoS Elasto Painters who played better without import Wayne Chism who looked meek and fragile and not the explosive player he was. He went out in the early third period with what looked like a hamstring injury but that didn’t stop Yeng Guiao’s charges from playing much better. Jericho Cruz, Maverick Ahanmisi, and JR Quinahan led the scorching rally that saw them knot the score at 76-all after being down 61-36 in the half.

In the fourth quarter, Merlaco got some huge points from Jared Dillinger, Arinze Onuaku who looked tired and was lumbering up and down the court, and two huge buckets from the resurgent Ken Bono and back-up point guard Anjo Caram.

For the match, I dusted off my analysis on the 24-second shot clock theory that I used to take reams of notes on Tim Cone’s Alaska and B-Meg/San Mig Coffee teams (I also tested that with NU-BDO in the D-League).

Essentially it goes like this: theoretically, a basketball team has five opportunities in a 24-second shot clock.

The first six seconds are usually off the fastbreak or the quick putback where the percentages are higher.

The next six are of lower percentages because the defense is better set.

In the next six (18 seconds), the percentages are better because this is when an offensive team should pick apart the defense with its set plays.

The next three seconds are still good because the designated scorer should have the ball in his hands.

The last three seconds, the percentages plummet because this is what you call the desperation shot.

What I did in this instance was break the shot clock down to FOUR intervals (I included two and three-point baskets as well as free throws whether one or two points were scored) instead of the five that I have previously used. The margin for error here is small. Probably three possessions that I could have been wrong but they do not affect the data that I have recorded.
24-19 seconds: 9 attempts; 6 times they scored; 1 turnover
18-13 seconds: 15 attempts; 7 times they scored; 1 turnover
12-7 seconds: 43 attempts; 20 times they scored; 5 turnovers
6-0 seconds: 20 attempts; 11 times they scored; 3 turnovers

Reset shot clocks
14-7 seconds: 4 attempts; 2 times they scored; 1 turnover
6-0 seconds: 2 attempts

Obviously, the Meralco Bolts score best in the first six seconds and the last six but the bulk of their attempts are when the shot clock hits 12 because they have managed to work the ball down to Arinze Onuaku. 

Ken Bono! Scored nine points in the match. Finally given a chance after being a practice player for both San Mig Coffee and Meralco the past few years, the former UAAP MVP has been given playing time the past three games. Against RoS, battling Beau Belga and JR Quinahan, Bono hit some huge shots.

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