Breaking down B-Meg’s Game One win
by rick olivares pic by brosi gonzales
I’m trying to build a case here. This isn’t a recap or detailed analysis. I have been away from the PBA for the whole conference and am still getting back in the groove. I’ve caught some matches on television but nothing compares to watching the games live. Anyways, I’ll try and work on some theories here especially one I have been trying to track down with Tim Cone’s teams.
The Phoenix Suns teams of Mike D’Antoni made its ‘seven-seconds-or-less’ offense forever a part of basketball lexicon. While it’s not ‘Moneyball’ as that pertains to a different aspect of baseball, I think it’s all about getting the easiest shots and points possible. Now when I look at a Tim Cone-coached team, what I look for is its adherence to the prescribed system and the management of the shot clock. Efficiency if you will.
Theoretically, a basketball team has five opportunities in a 24-second shot clock.
The first six seconds are usually off the fastbreak where the percentages are higher.
The next six are of lower percentages because the defense is better set.
In the next six (18 seconds), the percentages are better because this is when an offensive team should pick apart the defense with its set plays.
The next three seconds are still good because the designated scorer should have the ball in his hands.
The last three seconds, the percentages plummet because this is what you call the desperation shot.
I tried to track Game One of the Commissioner’s Cup Finals between B-Meg and Talk ‘N Text and here’s what I came up with the Llamados. Of course, there’s room for some error here (as I will try to perfect this tracking) but it’s almost accurate.
I know B-Meg scored 88 points but there were eight points where I was unable to record the time on the shot clock. In the official stat sheet, B-Meg was noted to have taken 77 attempts. My count has it at 81 so obviously I might have missed something here. Again, I am not saying that the official stats are wrong. I am trying to build a case and will try to perfect my data gathering.
Nevertheless, based on the data, it does jibe with the 24-second shot clock theory. And….. B-Meg shot 49.4% from the field. And the Llamados scored 14 points from the fastbreak and 10 second chance points – a couple that came off tip ins and putbacks.