Breaking
down B-Meg’s Game One win
by rick olivares pic by brosi gonzales
I’m trying to build a case here. This
isn’t a recap or detailed analysis. I have been away from the PBA for the whole
conference and am still getting back in the groove. I’ve caught some matches on
television but nothing compares to watching the games live. Anyways, I’ll try
and work on some theories here especially one I have been trying to track down
with Tim Cone’s teams.
The Phoenix Suns teams of Mike
D’Antoni made its ‘seven-seconds-or-less’ offense forever a part of basketball
lexicon. While it’s not ‘Moneyball’ as that pertains to a different aspect of
baseball, I think it’s all about getting the easiest shots and points possible.
Now when I look at a Tim Cone-coached team, what I look for is its adherence to
the prescribed system and the management of the shot clock. Efficiency if you
will.
Theoretically, a basketball team has
five opportunities in a 24-second shot clock.
The first six seconds are usually off
the fastbreak where the percentages are higher.
The next six are of lower percentages
because the defense is better set.
In the next six (18 seconds), the
percentages are better because this is when an offensive team should pick apart
the defense with its set plays.
The next three seconds are still good
because the designated scorer should have the ball in his hands.
The last three seconds, the
percentages plummet because this is what you call the desperation shot.
I tried to track Game One of the
Commissioner’s Cup Finals between B-Meg and Talk ‘N Text and here’s what I came
up with the Llamados. Of course, there’s room for some error here (as I will
try to perfect this tracking) but it’s almost accurate.
I
know B-Meg scored 88 points but there were eight points where I was unable to
record the time on the shot clock. In the official stat sheet, B-Meg was noted
to have taken 77 attempts. My count has it at 81 so obviously I might have
missed something here. Again, I am not saying that the official stats are
wrong. I am trying to build a case and will try to perfect my data gathering.
Nevertheless,
based on the data, it does jibe with the 24-second shot clock theory. And…..
B-Meg shot 49.4% from the field. And the Llamados scored 14 points from the
fastbreak and 10 second chance points – a couple that came off tip ins and
putbacks.
Rick , simply put BMEG won because TNT missed about 65% of FThrows awarded to them! If I got it right , TNT missed at least 20 of around 30+ FTs! Bmeg won by less than 10 points !So that's the story for TNT . I'm sure Coach Chot and his players are sulking about that since last night!
ReplyDeleteMissed free throws are part of the game. And if you read what I wrote correctly, I am trying to make a case also for the management of the 24-second shot clock and better shot selection. Of course the free throws were part of the culprit. I even tweeted about that. I thought that BMeg managed their shots more efficiently. READ THE PIECE PROPERLY.
ReplyDeleteI read your piece PROPERLY !
ReplyDeleteYou have your theory and I respect that! Now , I also have a simple theory and that's my case as a coach: TNT missed too many FTs that cost them Game 1 and that's the area that hurt big time!
Your statistics are not sufficient to make any solid conclusion! Stats from a game doesn't support accurate conclusions. Any Stat 101 student would know that!
I rest my case!
@Anonymous tell your team to practice shooting freethrows instead of bitching around here. The article is about the theory and not why/how BMeg won or TnT lost.
ReplyDeleteApparently he has poor reading comprehension. I bumped into Coach Tim before he entered the SMart Araneta Coliseum and he said that he found it fascinating. He first read of this in a NBA article a long time ago and this is the first time that he saw another sports writer do this but in an unofficial way. Will speak to Coach again on this matter.
Delete