2008-09 NBA Western Conference Preview

(From this month's issue of Maxim)
Float like a butterfly. Sting like a Hornet.

2008-09 Western Conference Preview
by rick olivares

In Mel Gibson’s masterpiece Apocalypto, Mesoamerican tribesman Jaguar Paw nearly kills Mayan raider Middle Eye when they attack the former’s village to capture slaves for human sacrifice. The Mesoamericans are taken prisoner and the brutal and diabolic Middle Eye nicknames Jaguar Paw, “Almost,” after his near death at his captive’s hands.

The 2007-08 New Orleans Hornets can be branded “almost” too after Chris Paul narrowly lost in the NBA’s MVP Award voting (that Kobe Bryant won) and after the Hornets nearly dispatched the San Antonio Spurs in Game 7 of the Western Semi-finals.

Hope springs eternal this 2008-09 season as the Hornets will complete the job and rule the West while deposing the Los Angeles Lakers who will try to get back at Boston for a humiliating defeat in the NBA Finals.

They essentially bring back the same crew (Peja Stojakovic, David West, Tyson Chandler, Bonzi Wells, Morris Peterson), but add one noticeable difference… James Posey who has now co-opted the moniker of “Big Game James” (from former Laker great James Worthy) after being a huge part of title drives by Miami and Boston.

Western Conference predicted order of finish

1. New Orleans Hornets

2. Los Angeles Lakers
When the final buzzer went off at Boston’s TD Banknorth Garden, the flustered Los Angeles Lakers knew that they couldn’t match the Celtics’ defensive intensity. And they counter this year with some new signings and plenty of good health.

Now that Kobe Bryant has Olympic gold to add to his three NBA championship rings and MVP Award, there remains one more goal: to win one without the Big Loudmouth who should torpedo the Phoenix Suns’ season with his constantly poor off-season conditioning.

In Beijing, Bryant was roundly applauded as he showed why he is the world’s best player. And now, he’d like to parlay that into one more Larry O’Brien trophy. Andrew Bynum is back as are Trevor Ariza and Chris Mihm. Sasha Vujacic was re-signed. And Chinese creator Sun Yue was brought to Hollywood.

Bynum’s presence (should he pick up where he left off) will give more space for Pau Gasol to operate at the four-spot and create even more mismatches. And Lamar Odom, the team’s new sixth man will bring back versatility and firepower off the bench.

They’ve got a deep bench and solid players at almost every position. But so do the top teams in the West.

3. San Antonio Spurs
Okay, this team wins it every other year – during odd years so does that say anything for this squad? They bring the same intangibles (if you can call these guys that) in Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Bruce Bowen, and Michael Finley. That’s scoring savvy, heart, defense, rebounding, and championship moxie. They’ve got a solid bench in Fabricio Oberto, Kurt Thomas, and Damon Stoudemire. Rookie James Gist from Maryland should help out and give this team a lift just as Jason Maxiell does for Detroit with his athleticism.

Don’t laugh but they’ll miss Brent Barry who jumped ship for Houston. How far they advance will depend more on their health than anything. As long as their Big Three of Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan are on the floor, the Spurs can take on anybody.

4. Houston Rockets
They’ve become the Minnesota Timberwolves. Make the first round. Get bounced. Ho hum.

The Rockets couldn’t get anything out of the draft so they have to turn to veteran help. Brent Barry brings in smarts and marksmanship. Ron Artest makes them a better team defensively but is a time bomb waiting to explode. And the jury is still out on DJ Strawberry more so that the Rockets lost Bobby Jackson who returned to Sacramento. Like any other team, the key is health, what will elevate this team isn’t the play of Luis Scola or Yao Ming in the post, but the game of Tracy McGrady. Time to doff that attitude. It’s never got you anything but endorsements and playoff failure. And that doesn’t cut it when you always wanted to be the man.

Supporting the team are Rafer Alston, Shane Battier, and Deke Mutombo. What they’ll need is more shooting if they want to make the most of their half-court set.

5. Utah Jazz
This is one team that never misses a beat. In the years since their previous dynamic duo retired, they’ve won two Northwest Division titles. The new catch phrase is “Williams to Boozer” and the two Olympians have definitely found a home in Salt Lake City. A third Olympian, Andrei Kirilenko has seen his performance dip over the last few years but his value is nonetheless indisputable.

Reprising Jeff Hornacek is the two-headed monster of Matt Harpring and Kyle Korver and their quiet but effective contributions are a luxury at the shooting guard position.

Jarron Collins, Paul Millsap and Memo Okur round out the frontline but that’s kinda thin when this team has to deal with Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, Tim Duncan, Yao Ming, Amare Stoudemire, Shaq, and Tyson Chandler on almost a nightly basis. If they want to make any headway, something’s got to change this season.

And unless Mike D’Antoni turns the New York Knicks into contenders, please give the coach of the Year Award to Jerry Sloan. You all know that he never misses a beat.

6. Phoenix Suns
It’s the Last Ride into the sunset for Phoenix. While some say that it was a mistake to send the Matrix to Miami in exchange for an aging player like the Big Mouth, it did help the Suns… if only for awhile. Now with a full training camp for Shaquille O’Neal, we can really tell if that was a stroke of genius on GM Steve Kerr’s part to let go of Shawn Marion.

But I wonder if they still want to play uptempo considering the age of many of their key players (Nash, O’Neal, Grant Hill) and wear and tear of their players. Sean Singletary should provide welcome relief for Nash and should keep up the fast style of play that slows down when O’Neal is on the floor. Yet clearly, this team is on its last legs. Boris Diaw and Barbosa have been dangled as trade bait (why I have no idea). And they may want to look for insurance for Grant Hill (they grabbed the kinetic Matt Barnes from Golden State to back him up) who played a high of 70 games last season; his most since when he was in Detroit which is a lifetime ago. Hill is still very good when he is hurting but obviously, the Suns need more than 70 games out of him.

This is not the Suns team that won two straight Pacific Division titles. They were overtaken by a Los Angeles Lakers squad that wasn’t even healthy. So figure it out to be more of the same this year: LA at #1 and Phoenix at #2.

7. Dallas Mavericks
Ever since the Dallas Mavericks made the NBA Finals in 2006, their play and stock has dipped. The team pulled the trigger and offloaded Devin Harris to New Jersey for Jason Kidd who was expected to work his mojo with the Mavs. It would be foolhardy to jettison Dirk Nowitski and company this year since I think they’ll get more acclimated to Kidd who will get them the ball where they want it.

They still have a good bunch of players with experienced veterans like Jason Terry, Josh Howard, Erick Dampier, Eddie Jones, and Jerry Stackhouse to compete night after night. With new Coach Rick Carlisle patrolling the sidelines, you know that defense is the order of the day for this squad. Should DeSagana Diop become the second coming of Dikembe Mutombo and turn the shaded lane into a no-fly zone then Kidd and his back-up Puerto Rican point guard Jose Juan Barea, who impressed in his sophomore year, will get this team flying out of the gates.

8. Portland Trailblazers
The young, exciting, and the restless of the great northwest. The youth movement and weeding out of the Rashweeds of the City of Roses is complete. They have a great corps of young players and with winning backgrounds and they figure that will spread that goodwill around the team. And more importantly, they have Greg Oden finally in harness.

Take a look at this line-up: Rudy Fernandez and Sergio Rodriguez fresh from their Silver Medal stint in Beijing, they also have on hand former Rookie of the Year Brandon Roy, former Arizona Wildcat Jerryd Bayless who has the makings of a terrific shooting guard, Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw on the three-spot, and Luke Jackson and Ike Diogu to ply up front either at the four or caddying to Oden. Jackson and Diogu had great college careers but have yet to make any serious headway in the pros but look for them to find a home in Portland. Steve Blake will start at point but if Fernandez plays like he did in the Olympics, look for him to take over rather than being the first guard off the bench.

This team will have their work cut out for them as they play 16 of their first 24 games on the road. You finally have an exciting team much like your Sonics team of the 90’s (coach) Nate MacMillan. Let’s see how they run.

The rest of the standings:
9. Denver Nuggets
10. Golden State Warriors
11. Sacramento Kings
12. Los Angeles Clippers
13. Minnesota Timberwolves
14. Memphis Grizzlies
15. Oklahoma City Thunder